Unclenched fist of Obama

By Ali Maysoumi

 

In past few weeks centre point of any Iranian conversation was President Barak Obama, his policy review and the most important one his sweet Nowrouz message. The video message - with Farsi subtitles - from Barack Obama has assured Iranians that the US wants "engagement that is honest and grounded in mutual respect", prompting a swift response from Iran's Supreme leader.

If the rumour about a confidential letter to Supreme Leader is true then the good news is that after 30 years finally Americans realized who is really in charge of that country; Ali Khamenei not the so called elected presidents and parliamentarians.  The focal point of Khamenei’s response was that if you are ready to change, then we would change our behaviour too. From Iran’s point of view change means something more than lifting of partly inefficient sanctions. Although these sanction specially the recent ones, has taken its toll, so far Islamic Republic has managed to dodge them by passing the pressure to people.

Preventing Iran from access to nuclear technology is hitting two birds with one stone. It takes away a dangerous toy from hands of a vicious child and puts an end to sweet dreams of other nations who are thinking about a homemade nuclear capability. A nuclear Iran would have been much more bearable if it was about to stop right there. The fact is a nuclear Iran is a start to a widespread proliferation. 

 Islamic regime is more than willing to negotiate and what they are looking for is not the right to enrich uranium or lifting of economic sanction.  They are seeking a formal recognition and the first step has been taken by Barak Obama when he-for the first time as a US president- called them Islamic Republic of Iran. This is what Iranian regime has sought during past thirty years and has cost them heavily. Recognition of Islamic regime in Iran enables them to become a mini super power in Middle East and to spread their hegemony across the region. Therefore I will not be surprised to hear that they are ready to give up their nuclear facilities and stop enrichment forever. Even recognition of Israel and engagement in a Palestinian-Israeli peace process is not conceivable. It is obvious that even crazy statements of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad about obliteration of Israel are nothing but a political rhetoric that can be used in the time of grand bargain. The Islamic regime has saved these cards for the right moment and is eager to bring them up for the grand bargain.

In this scenario everything looks perfect and western politicians can claim a victory after thirty years of brawl. A glorious triumph for diplomacy and the infamous carrot and stick strategy; Iran comes back to community of nations, the imminent threat from a nuclear and hostile Iran will fade away and finally they will help to get rid of terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah by either merging them into peace process or by cutting their life lines. Iran also commits itself to improve its human right condition by abandoning public executions and arbitrary killings. Although when it comes behind closed doors, human right condition has no importance whatsoever for western diplomats as they have learned how to live with brutal regimes like Iran.

But the problem is, it is simply too good to be true. I believe there is a misapprehension about nature and essence of Iranian threat among western policymakers. It would have been much easier if the problem with Iran could have been brought down to nuclear issue and support for terrorism. The main problem about Iran is Political Islam. Political Islam is embedded in manifest of Islamic Republic of Iran and fascism is an indissoluble part of this phenomenon.  

In my view, western policymakers are suffering from two diseases of short-termism and historical amnesia.  If Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement with Adolf Hitler could spare the world from Nazi aggression, Presidents Obama’s unclenched fist and his flirtation with Ali Khamenei can be fruitful and put an end into Iran ambitions.